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2020–2021 GSA-USGS CONGRESSIONAL SCIENCE FELLOW REPORT

A Climate Scientist on Capitol Hill:

Encountering Uncertainty in

Science and Practice

On 29 Feb. 2020, I took the train to Union came to bear on my work: how would the two parties share power?
Station in Washington, D.C., hopped on the What would be the legislative plan? What kind of legislation can
Red Line to Metro Center, and walked about pass through budget reconciliation, thereby bypassing the filibus-
a block to the GSA office to interview for ter? These questions were now superimposed on the uncertainty
the remarkable opportunity to serve as a of the COVID-19 pandemic regarding cases, vaccines, and the
Congressional Science Fellow. There, I sat return to “normal.”
in a conference room with 10 strangers and After the presidential inauguration, key Senate tasks took
talked, unmasked, for almost an hour. As I center stage. Confirmation hearings for presidential nominees,
write this more than a year later, that was the and the preparatory meetings between nominees and members of
Charles Gertler last time I rode on public transit or had unre- Congress, were the first major order of business. My office also
stricted interactions with such a large group turned its attention more fully to policy initiatives and priorities
of people, and it is surreal to think we once took such experiences where I have seen yet another form of uncertainty play out—
for granted. uncertainty about the final outcome of a project. With legislation,
As COVID-19 cases exploded during the spring and summer, cosponsors are often brought on board and may suggest edits, and
and as we struggled to mount an effective defense against the virus, interest groups and outside experts are often consulted to ensure
uncertainty grew as to when and how we would ever return to nor- the legislation will accomplish its goals, bringing along further
mal. At the same time, smaller-scale uncertainty grew for myself suggestions and changes. It is an iterative process, with difficult-
and the roughly 30 other Congressional Science Fellows, funded by to-predict outcomes.
a host of scientific societies, bracing for the transition to becoming My time on Capitol Hill so far has been spent entirely on Zoom,
Hill staffers. Already unsure as to what to expect in our new roles, save one in-person press conference for a bill on which I worked
we became quickly unsure how we would even perform them. The extensively. In all this time, I have nonetheless drawn deeply on
set of experiences that followed can be characterized most broadly the lessons, skills, and ways of thinking I developed while training
by uncertainty, but I have come to learn in my time on Capitol Hill to become a scientist—understanding of uncertainty, project itera-
so far that even in “normal” years, dealing with uncertainty is at the tion, navigating complexity, and structured analysis—to contrib-
core of the alchemy of federal policy making. ute to the policy-making process. I have gained a deeper under-
All scientists, but geoscientists in particular, are trained to standing of just how complex and at times unpredictable policy
understand the robustness of conclusions and predictions given making can be, and I have built an appreciation for all there is to
differing levels of uncertainty. This skill first proved useful in my learn by working with seasoned and dedicated experts. The privi-
current role upon entering the office of Senator Edward J. Markey lege I feel to be able to serve my country, my home state, and the
in October of an election year, with the fate of Senate control and geoscientific community in this way is immense, and I can only
the presidency hinging on the outcome of an election. The alter- hope the second half of my experience is as fruitful and perhaps
nate permutations of the potential futures we were likely to face slightly less uncertain.
soon in the federal government meant that planning legislative
priorities and oversight actions had to be probabilistic in nature: This manuscript is submitted for publication by Charles
multiple contingencies for multiple scenarios, with a proportionate Gertler, 2020–2021 GSA-USGS Congressional Science Fellow,
amount of effort and time. During that period, I produced dual with the understanding that the U.S. government is authorized to
memos on many issues with different recommendations on reproduce and distribute reprints for governmental use. The one-
approach depending on the outcome of the election. year fellowship is supported by GSA and the U.S. Geological
In the narrative of my time on the Hill so far, no date looms as Survey, Department of the Interior, under Assistance Award No
large as 6 Jan., when a series of shocking tragedies and disgraces G20AP00106. The views and conclusions contained in this docu-
occurred in my new workplace, and my new colleagues and the ment are those of the author and should not be interpreted as
senator whom I serve were placed in harm’s way. That was also necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or
the day that decided the working reality of the Senate for the next implied, of the U.S. government. Gertler works in the office of
two years, with the elections in Georgia officially cementing an Sen. Edward Markey (D-MA) and can be contacted by email at
evenly split body. A whole new suite of uncertain events then charles.gertler@gmail.com.

38 GSA Today | July 2021