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One of the most obvious questions regarding the June 27th         Indeed, the high level of involvement with the community                            GSA TODAY | www.geosociety.org/gsatoday
flow is why it traveled no farther than 20 km from its source.      may have helped to prevent the perception that HVO and the
For ‘a‘ā lava flows, a well-established relationship, governed by   county were “crying wolf,” given that the crisis ultimately passed
flow cooling, exists between maximum flow length and effusion       with little direct harm.These volcanological and sociological
rate (Walker, 1973). No such relation is known for pāhoehoe         issues are the subject of a recently funded interdisciplinary
flows, however, because they frequently form insulating tubes,      National Science Foundation Hazards SEES project with many
enabling them to travel much farther than would otherwise be        collaborating institutions (including HVO). Developing new
possible (Keszthelyi, 1995; Kauahikaua et al., 1998, 2003). Long-   tools based on the June 27th lava flow and similar experiences
lived pāhoehoe flows with 1–2 m3/s discharge rates, however,        will be an important task for the next, inevitable, lava flow crisis,
represent a largely unknown low-effusion-rate end member            whether in Hawai‘i or elsewhere in the world.
for that lava flow style.The June 27th flow’s low effusion rate,
coupled with cooling, crystal growth, loss of volatiles, lava tube  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
breakdown, and other factors, might indicate that—at 20 km
from its source—it had reached its maximum length for its              We are grateful to the staff and officials of the County of Hawai‘i
effusion rate.The situation may be analogous to that of better-     for their support and consistent collaboration on issues related to
modeled ‘a‘ā flows, but since long-lived, low-effusion-rate         volcanic activity. In particular, we wish to acknowledge Hawai‘i County
pāhoehoe flows that are not limited in the extent they can travel   Civil Defense Administrator Darryl Oliveira, Mayor Billy Kenoi, and
(by the ocean, for example) are nearly unknown in nature, the       their staffs. Pilot David Okita was, as always, masterful and tireless
June 27th flow represents a key example that should be the basis    in conducting flights to aid in monitoring and research activities. Our
of future modeling.                                                 frequent coworkers from the University of Hawai‘i (both the Hilo
                                                                    and Mānoa campuses), including professors and students, provided
  Finally, the infiltration of lava into and downslope movement     important assistance in tracking the June 27th lava flow over time and
within existing ground cracks has not previously been observed      evaluating hazards (Ken Hon and Cheryl Gansecki were especially close
to the extent seen at Kīlauea during August and September           collaborators), and HVO greatly benefits from the many volunteers, like
2014. Lava disappeared from the surface for several days at a       Ben Gaddis and David Dow, who assist with field, laboratory, and office
time. Small plumes of condensed steam coming from the forest        work. Our thanks to Cynthia Gardner and two anonymous reviewers for
were the only visible indication of flow advancement (Fig. 3B),     their comments, which greatly improved the manuscript.
although crack opening was indicated by nearby borehole
tiltmeter and GPS instruments.The flow of lava through existing     REFERENCES CITED
cracks should be considered in flow-path modeling, since such
structures divert lava from its previous trajectory and may         Anderson, K.R., Poland, M.P., Miklius,A., and Johnson, J.H., 2015, Episodic
influence advance rate and longevity.                                     deflation–inflation events at Kīlauea Volcano and implications for the
                                                                          shallow magma system, in Carey, R.J., Cayol,V., Poland, M.P., and Weis,
FUTURE IMPACTS AND CONCLUSIONS                                            D., eds., Hawaiian Volcanoes, From Source to Surface:Washington,
                                                                          D.C.,American Geophysical Union Geophysical Monograph 208, 	
  The future of the June 27th lava flow is unclear.Although               p. 229–250, doi: 10.1002/9781118872079.ch11.
the 2014–2015 Pāhoa lava flow crisis is over, the lava flow
remains active north of the ERZ and could advance downslope,        Callis,T., 2014,Work continues on Chain of Craters Road; plans are to
especially if there is an increase in effusion rate. On the other         smooth out path over lava instead of dig through: Hawaii Tribune-
hand, the 1983–present eruption has become consistently                   Herald, 2 Oct. 2014, http://hawaiitribune-herald.com/news/local-news/
inconsistent, with new vents forming every few years (e.g., Orr et        work-continues-chain-craters-road-plans-are-smooth-out-path-over-
al., 2015a); a future reconfiguration could once more direct lava         lava-instead-dig (last accessed Sept. 2015).
south to the ocean.The current ERZ eruption may also cease	
—an eventuality that cannot be forecast, but one that would         Clague, D.A., Hagstrum, J.T., Champion, D.E., and Beeson, M.H., 1999,
obviously have profound implications for ongoing hazards                  Kīlauea summit overflows;Their ages and distribution in the Puna
(where would the next eruption occur?).                                   District, Hawai‘i: Bulletin of Volcanology, v. 61, p. 363–381, doi: 10.1007/
                                                                          s004450050279.
  The June 27th flow has, thus far, provided numerous learning
opportunities without causing widespread destruction.While          Favalli, M., Pareschi, M.T., Neri,A., and Isola, I., 2005, Forecasting lava flow
many insights have been driven home by the flow—for 	                     paths by a stochastic approach: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 32,
example, the linkage between flow advance and summit                      L03305, doi: 10.1029/2004GL021718.
pressurization, the interaction between lava flows and existing
geologic structures, and the notorious leaky nature of lava         Gíslason, S.R., and 30 others, 2015, Environmental pressure from the
tubes—a number of knowledge gaps have been put in the                     2014–15 eruption of Bárðarbunga volcano, Iceland: Geochemical
spotlight, including possible length-limiting factors for pāhoehoe        Perspectives, v. 1, p. 84–93, doi: 10.7185/geochemlet.1509.
flows and the need for better models of pāhoehoe lava advance
rate. Lessons also extend to social science, where the response     González, P.J., Bagnardi, M., Hooper,A.J., Larsen,Y., Marinkovic, P.,
by HVO and the County of Hawai‘i highlighted the value of a               Samsonov, S.V., and Wright, J., 2015,The 2014–2015 eruption of Fogo
coordinated and diverse approach to communicating uncertain               volcano: Geodetic modelling of Sentinel-1 TOPS interferometry:
hazards information and the importance of frequent interactions           Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1002/2015GL066003.
with people living and working in potential inundation areas.
                                                                    Harris,A.J.L., and Rowland, S.K., 2015,An updated framework for
                                                                          thermorheological simulations of channel-contained lava, in Carey, 	
                                                                          R.J., Cayol,V., Poland, M.P., and Weis, D., eds., Hawaiian
                                                                          Volcanoes, from Source to Surface:Washington, D.C.,American
                                                                          Geophysical Union Geophysical Monograph 208, p. 457–481, doi:
                                                                          10.1002/9781118872079.ch21.

                                                                    Kauahikaua, J., 2007, Lava flow hazard assessment, as of August 2007, for
                                                                          Kīlauea East Rift Zone Eruptions, Hawai‘i Island: U.S. Geological
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                                                                    Kauahikaua, J.P., and Tilling, R.I., 2014, Natural hazards and risk reduction
                                                                          in Hawai‘i, in Poland, M.P.,Takahashi,T.J., and Landowski, C.M.,

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